Predicting Chinese Tourism Demand to South Korea Using Grey System Model

초록

This paper tries to analyze the possibility of the realization of the Chinese tourism demand to Korea. China and South Korea’s FTA came into force from December 2015; and in South Korea, the number of Chinese students maintain the first place for many years; furthermore in 2016 South Korea held Korea tourism year in China, which will attract about 8 million Chinese tourists to visit Korea. China's population will continue to grow in the future, especially the release of the two-child birth policy from last year. Lastly, the quantified forecast of China’s GDP growth and the quantitative trends of China's per capita GDP growth may increase steadily in the next few years, the results show that the next 5 years (2017~2021),Chinese tourists will have the ability to travel to South Korea. The results provide an important reference for the Korean tourism industry and other relevant departments.

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