중국의 경제정책 불확실성이 중국과 아세안 국가 간 수출에 미치는 영향

Abstract

Purpose – This study aims to examine the impact of China’s economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on export trade between China and ASEAN countries, addressing the research gap regarding bilateral trade among emerging economies. Design/Methodology/Approach – Utilizing an extended gravity model, the study analyzes annual panel data spanning from 2003 to 2023 for China and ten ASEAN countries. A fixed-effects regression model is employed to estimate the impact of China’s EPU on export volumes. In addition to the main variable of interest, three moderating factors, domestic political risk, human capital, and technological development, are introduced to explore how institutional and structural conditions mediate the effects of policy uncertainty. Findings – The results demonstrate that increased economic policy uncertainty in China significantly reduces exports to ASEAN. This negative impact is amplified when domestic political risk is high in China, suggesting that institutional volatility exacerbates the adverse effects of uncertainty. In contrast, higher levels of human capital and technological advancement in ASEAN economies are found to buffer against these negative shocks, enhancing resilience in trade relationships. Research Implications – This study contributes to the understanding of how policy uncertainty affects international trade in emerging markets. It offers theoretical and practical implications for stabilizing China–ASEAN trade relations under uncertainty, and provides insights to enhanc regional cooperation and policy transparency.