국제 원조와 금융 발전의 상호작용이 경제 성장에 미치는 영향: 스리랑카 사례 분석

Abstract

Purpose – This study aims to empirically examine the impact of Official Development Assistance (ODA) and financial development on economic growth in a recipient country. Specifically, it investigates whether and how the interaction between ODA and financial sector maturity influences the effectiveness of aid in promoting long-term growth. Design/Methodology/Approach – Using annual time-series data for Sri Lanka from 1982 to 2017, this study applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to distinguish short-run and long-run dynamics. An interaction term between ODA and financial development is included to capture the conditional nature of aid effectiveness depending on the level of financial system development. Findings – The empirical results show that ODA has a significantly positive effect on economic growth in the long run. However, the interaction term between ODA and financial development yields a significant negative coefficient in the long-run estimation, suggesting that the marginal effect of aid diminishes or may even reverse as the financial sector becomes more developed. Conversely, in the short run, the interaction effect is positive, implying that aid can help ease capital constraints in less financially mature environments. Research Implications – These findings support the conditional hypothesis that the effectiveness of foreign aid depends on the recipient country’s institutional and financial capacity. This study highlights the importance of aligning aid allocation strategies with the recipient’s financial development stage, thereby providing practical insights for both donor agencies and recipient governments in designing more effective aid policies.