산지쌀값의 구조변화와 변동성 분석

Abstract

This study analyzes the structural change and volatility of rice price in producing stage. The trend of price fluctuation is declining and estimated to be significant during the past 20 years. The result of Quandt-Andrews breakpoint test which is conducted for identifying the timing of the structural change of rice price presents september 15, 2006. This timing is the first harvest year to be applied the end of rice purchase system in 2005. The result of comparison by measuring each volatility of before and after september 15, 2006 indicates that the volatility is rapidly increased in recent years. Estimation result of EGARCH model shows that volatility of rice price has been caused by the price decline. This implies that there is an increased need for policies to stabilize the price of rice.