한·중 FTA로 인한 관세인하가 중국수출기업의 주가에 미치는 영향

Abstract

The Free Trade Agreement between China and South Korea includes the elimination of tariffs for an extensive group of goods and the elimination of restrictions on foreign direct investment. After one year of its implementation, we estimate the effect of tariff changes on Chinese firm prices. More specifically, we select the 16 top-ranked firms listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in terms of trade volumes between China and Korea, and classify them into the treatment group and the control group. Next, we conduct the difference-in-difference analysis using their daily stock prices to examine the net effect of the tariff changes incorporated in the Korea-China FTA. Our findings point out that the decrease in tariffs has a significant positive effect on the stock prices of the firms in the treatment group, which is significantly affected by the treaty. The implementation of the treaty benefits the commercial flows of the goods for which Chinese firms present a comparative advantage. In addition, by changing the reference point of time into the settlement date, the approval date, and the effective date of the FTA, we can figure out the fact that the net effect is revealed between the approval date and the effective date.