Potential effects of future adoption of the REDD mechanism as a preventive measure against deforestation and forest degradation in North Korea

Abstract

This study assesses potential effects of adaption to climate change in the future as a carbon related value using a baseline and credit approach, considering the implementation of the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD) mechanism. Basic data were obtained for implementing the REDD mechanism in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) for scientific decision-making to prevent deforestation and forest degradation. The potential effects according to the implementation of the REDD mechanism in the DPRK based on forest status data (the latest) are as follows. If the deforestation rate is reduced to a level below 6% through a 20-year REDD mechanism beginning in 2011, 0.01-11.64 C-tons of carbon credit per ha could be issued for DPRK. Converted into CO2-tons per ha, this amounts to 0.03-42.68 CO2-tons, which translates to a minimum of 226,000 CO2-tons and a maximum of 289,082,000 CO2-tons overall for forests in DPRK. In terms of carbon price, this measures up to 1.10 million USD-1.4 billion USD, considering that the REDD carbon price in voluntary carbon markets in 2010 was around 5 USD.