상충적 감정과 투표 결정 시기에 대한 연구 : 2014년~2017년 일본 선거 분석

초록

This study examines the factors influencing late deciders—voters who postpone their decision-making until closer to the election day—by analyzing the Japanese House of Representatives and House of Councillors elections held between 2014 and 2017. It focuses on the political environment of party realignments among opposition parties in Japan during the 2010s and explores how voters' ambivalence toward political parties affects the timing of their voting decisions. The findings are summarized as follows: First, voters with higher levels of ambivalence were more likely to delay their voting decisions. Second, when late deciders were categorized into high interest and low interest late deciders and compared with early deciders, the analysis revealed that voters with higher ambivalence and younger age were more likely to be low interest late deciders. In contrast, voters with higher educational attainment were more likely to be high interest late deciders. Third, male voters with higher educational attainment were also more likely to be high interest late deciders. These results contribute to the existing research on Japanese elections by highlighting the role of ambivalence and late deciders, while also reaffirming findings from prior studies on ambivalence and swing voters.

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