시민 폭동에서 체제 전복으로: 엡스타인(Epstein)의 행위자 기반 모형의 확장

초록

This article expands on Epstein(2002)’s civil violence model to explore how collective resistance evolves into regime overthrow. While Epstein’s work demonstrated the dynamics of how individual grievances can escalate into collective resistance through agent-based modeling (ABM), it treated such resistance as a temporary phenomenon, lacking an explanation for sustained systemic change like regime overthrow. This research extends Epstein’s model by incorporating key parameters such as neighborhood effects, information diffusion, declining government legitimacy, and the weakening of law enforcement, to reconstruct the model and replicate the dynamics of regime overthrow through computer simulations. The results reveal that by treating government legitimacy as a dynamic variable and law enforcement as decision-making agents interacting with their environment, the process of long-term systemic change initiated by social resistance can be explained. This study highlights both the potential and the limitations of ABM, providing new insights and methodological contributions to understanding complex social phenomena in the social sciences.

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