중국 통화정책의 산업별 영향

초록

As an important instrument of macroeconomic policy, monetary policy not only has a significant impact on the aggregate economy, but also plays an important role in industrial development and restructuring. Monetary policy has a different effect on each industry because there are differences in funding capacity, industry characteristics, and regional distribution by industry. From the first quarter of 2002 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the effectiveness of China's monetary policy was examined using a structural VAR model, targeting quarterly data on Chinese macroeconomic variables. The results of the empirical analysis are as follows. First, interest rates and loan sizes have minimal impact on each industry. Second, the exchange rate did not affect the primary industry, but had a negative (-) effect on the secondary and tertiary industries. Among them, the secondary industry reacted the most to the exchange rate. Third, asset prices did not affect the primary and secondary industries, but had a positive effect on the tertiary industries. Fourth, world GDP did not affect the primary and tertiary industries, but had a positive effect on the secondary industries. It was confirmed that only when the world economy continues to grow can China's exports increase and the secondary industry grow rapidly.

키워드