건강보험 국고지원 확대의 경제 및 후생 효과

초록

We study how expanding general-budget transfers to national health insurance (NHI) affects efficiency and welfare using a calibrated life-cycle general equilibrium model with age-dependent stochastic health. We compare three financing methods for expansion—expenditure cuts, higher consumption taxes, and higher capital-income taxes—and a case where the transfer sunsets and NHI is funded by higher contribution rates. Expansion raises output under expenditure cuts or consumption-tax hikes but lowers it under capital-income-tax hikes; sunsetting the transfer reduces output the most. Welfare effects differ by cohort: future generations gain with expenditure cuts and consumption-tax hikes but lose with capital-income-tax hikes, whereas current generations gain only with expenditure cuts and lose when either tax rises. Eliminating the subsidy reduces welfare for both current and future generations.

키워드