아시아 지역 지정학적 리스크가 중국 원자재 상품 가격 변동성에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구: TVP-SV-VAR 모형 기반 실증분석

초록

Against the backdrop of profound changes in the geopolitical landscape and the continuous rise of regional security risks, geopolitical risks have become an important external shock factor disturbing the global commodity market. Given that geopolitical risks in the Asian region may have a systemic impact on China's commodity market, this paper constructs a TVP-SV-VAR model and uses monthly data to empirically analyze the dynamic transmission effect of the prices of China's major commodity sectors. The analysis is conducted from two dimensions: dynamic paths and key pilot impulse responses. The research results show that geopolitical risks in the Asian region significantly affect the price fluctuations of China's commodities, and there are obvious heterogeneities in the response intensity and duration of different commodity sectors to geopolitical risks. This study not only reveals the complex path of the impact of geopolitical risks on China's commodity market but also provides empirical support for policymaking. It is suggested to improve the monitoring and early warning system for geopolitical risks and promote supply chain diversification to enhance China's market resilience and strategic response capabilities in the current context of geopolitical uncertainties.

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