한국 무당파 유권자층의 투표 참여 요인: 제21대 국회의원 선거 분석

초록

This paper analyzes the determinants of voting participation among partisan and independent voters using survey data conducted after the 21st National Assembly election in Korea, held on April 15, 2020. Research on independents in Korean society is particularly important because their voting participation significantly influences election results and is essential for understanding and predicting the future trajectory of Korean party politics. Considering that the voting participation of independents also impacts voter turnout, thereby enhancing the democratic legitimacy of elections, analyzing the factors that affect their voting participation emerges as a crucial research topic. The analysis results of this paper can be summarized as follows: First, the voter turnout for leaning independent voters was similar to that of all voters, but the voter turnout for pure independents was less than a majority. It can be confirmed that voters who have at least some affinity for a political party are more active in voting, even if they do not have a strong sense of identification with a political party. Second, among the independent variables analyzed to determine the factors influencing voters' participation in voting, interest in elections consistently had a significant influence on the dependent variable, regardless of the type of voter. Given the consistent significance of interest n elections, it is possible that the remaining independent variables, such as voters' attitudes toward politics or short-term issues, converged with interest in elections and exhibited their influence. Third, when voters were divided into partisan voters and independent voters, and the determinants of voting participation were compared and analyzed, differences were observed. Compared to partisan voters, the factors influencing independent voters’turnout decreased significantly. Furthermore, when comparing and analyzing voting participation factors by distinguishing between leaning independents and pure independents, no significant differences were found between the two groups.

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