정서적 양극화, 사회적 압력, 그리고 지지 후보 변경: 제20대 대선 패널데이터 분석

초록

This paper aims to examine who and why voters change their choices during the 20th presidential election campaign. Based on a 3-wave panel survey data, this paper classifies voters into consistent voters, switching voters, late deciders and the rest. Focusing on switching voters and late deciders, it analyzes what determines their vote choices. The empirical findings are summarized as follows. First, independents are more likely to change candidates that they support. Second, the individual level of affective polarization is negatively associated with the chance of being switching voters or late deciders. Third, the association between emotional polarization and the chance of being switching voters or late deciders can be moderated by what candidates are supported by the majority around them. These results imply that we should pay attention to social sorting that can generate social pressure on homogeneity and strengthen affective polarization when analyzing vote choices properly in the emotionally polarized political environment.

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