사전투표에 대한 신뢰와 동기적 사고: 2022년 대통령 선거 패널 데이터 분석

초록

This study empirically analyzes the influence of motivated reasoning on voters’ trust in the early voting system, utilizing data from a three-wave panel survey conducted before and after the 2022 South Korean Presidential Election. To this end, the study proposes and tests three hypotheses using a Two-Way Fixed Effects (TWFE) model. The analysis reveals that among supporters of the People Power Party, who were initially skeptical of early voting, distrust in the system intensified as their candidate, Yoon Suk-yeol, saw his approval ratings rise before the election. However, their trust in the system increased significantly immediately following Yoon’s victory. In contrast, the trust levels of Democratic Party supporters, who initially expressed high confidence in the system, remained stable throughout the campaign but declined following the defeat of their candidate, Lee Jae-myung. These findings suggest that trust in the early voting system is itself strongly shaped by voters’ motivated reasoning. Therefore, to prevent the politicization of institutional trust and the subsequent erosion of democratic functions, it is crucial to implement strategies aimed at mitigating voters’ cognitive biases, in addition to pursuing technical improvements to the voting system itself.

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