고정금리 주택담보대출 확대가 통화정책 파급에 미치는 영향

초록

The interest rate channel transmits monetary policy through adjustments in short-term policy rates to bank lending rates and long-term rates, ultimately affecting aggregate demand and prices. However, the recent expansion of fixed-rate mortgage loans, which do not immediately reflect policy rate changes, has raised concerns about the effectiveness of this transmission mechanism. This paper examines whether the structural shift toward fixed-rate mortgages affects the transmission of policy rate changes to bank lending rates. The results show that increased fixed-rate mortgage share significantly weakens this transmission. Fixed-rate mortgage rates showed no significant responsiveness to policy rate changes, contrasting with corporate loans, credit loans, and variable- rate mortgages. Since 2019, as fixed-rate mortgages increased, responsiveness of household lending rates either disappeared or declined compared to 2013-2018. While fixed-rate mortgages provide macro-prudential benefits by reducing household vulnerability to interest rate shocks, they can also weaken monetary policy transmission. Policymakers should strengthen communication to clarify monetary policy expectations and employ complementary tools such as macro- prudential policies and household debt management to ensure policy effectiveness.

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