에이전트 기반 모형(Agent-Based Modeling)을 활용한 국민의힘 의원들의 윤석열 탄핵 표결 분석: 기립박수 모형(Standing Ovation Problem)의 확장

초록

This study analyzes the voting choices of People Power Party (PPP) lawmakers in the plenary session on President Yoon Suk-yeol’s impeachment. Using an agent-based model (ABM), we simulate two rounds of voting to identify key influences on lawmakers’ decisions. PPP lawmakers faced external pressure to support impeachment and internal pressure to conform to party leadership. We argue that their choices were shaped by personal preferences, constituency interests, party stance, public opinion, and peer influence. Our model incorporates four key factors: (1) individual impeachment preferences, (2) external pressure, (3) party leadership’s conformity pressure, and (4) peer influence (neighborhood and audience effects). Simulation results show that in the first vote, party leadership’s strong opposition and high participation costs constrained lawmakers, while in the second vote, rising external pressure and a weakened party stance led to defections, resulting in impeachment approval. Through 500 simulations, we confirm that party pressure and external influence significantly shaped lawmakers’ decisions, with peer influence playing a crucial role. These findings highlight the limitations of traditional approaches that treat lawmakers as independent units and demonstrate ABM’s value in analyzing political decision-making.

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