경제정책 불확실성이 국제무역에 미치는 영향

초록

This study uses a gravity model and panel data from 19 economies from 2003 to 2022 and explores the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and export and import trade. The regression results confirm that an increase in economic policy uncertainty in a country will significantly suppress its exports, and an increase in EPU index in trading partner countries will significantly suppress their imports. And through a series of robustness tests, the reliability of the results was further confirmed. In addition, through heterogeneity analysis of empirical results, it was found that compared to Non-OECD countries, the increase in economic policy uncertainty has a more significant negative impact on the import and export trade of OECD countries; the increase in economic uncertainty (EPU) will significantly affect the imports of Non-OECD countries, especially those from OECD countries. This is because OECD countries have more sensitive reactions and actions towards economic policies. This article provides important references for international trade entities to formulate economic policies in the field of studying the impact of economic policy uncertainty on trade.

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