중국 위안화 환율 불균형이 제조업의 수출에 미치는 영향: ARDL-ECM모형을 통한 예측 분석

초록

Real exchange rate misalignment is a key factor affecting international trade. Based on panel data from China and its seven major trading partners (1994–2021), this study estimates the RMB equilibrium exchange rate and misalignment degree using the BEER model, and analyzes the impact on China’s manufactured goods exports (SITC 5–8, 1997–2021) via ARDL and ECM approaches. Findings indicate that the RMB is currently misaligned, with heterogeneous time-lagged effects across industries. While the exchange rate positively influences exports, misalignment exerts negative sector-specific impacts, though exports exhibit self-adjustment dynamics. The study proposes improving RMB management mechanisms, developing hedging tools, and implementing differentiated export strategies to facilitate industrial upgrading and optimize trade structure.

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