궐련형 전자담배 도입이 국내 담배시장에 미친 영향

초록

In this paper, we analyze the penetration effect of heated tobacco product(HTP) on Korean tobacco market using regional panel data on conventional cigarette(CC) and HTP sales. We estimate panel fixed IV model using Hausman(1996) type instrumental variables to alleviate the endogenity problem caused by simultaneous determination of CC and HTP sales. Our results indicates that HTP and CC have a one-to-one substitution relationship, implying that the HTP introduction did not result in the quantitative expansion of smoking. Furthermore, our subsample analysis showed that those who are highly educated, female, and the youth are more likely to use HTP as an alternative to CC. These results imply that policymakers should pay attention to the role of HTP as a substitute for CC when designing tobacco regulation policy.

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