중국의 계란가격 전망 모형 개발 연구

초록

The recent egg market in China has been experiencing significant price fluctuations, leading to market instability. These fluctuations are attributed to the rearing structure of laying hens and external factors such as COVID-19, avian influenza, and food safety incidents. In response, this study aims to explain and predict wholesale egg prices in China by considering the rearing structure of laying hens and various exogenous variables. Long-term production models and short-term price models have been established. Additionally, given China's vast geographical environment and regional characteristics, we have developed and compared a national model for the whole of China and a model specific to Henan Province, the largest egg-producing region in China. The analysis reveals that, in the long-term production model, China’s egg production is influenced by the previous year’s egg prices and the impact of COVID-19. In the short-term price model, egg prices are affected by the supply and consumption of eggs, long-term rearing cycles, and seasonal factors. The predictive power of the constructed models has been verified to be highly accurate across all models, indicating the high utility of the models developed in this study.

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