국면전환모형을 이용한 수출과 수출보험의 시계열 특성에 관한 연구

초록

Purpose : This study examines how the time series characteristics and response patterns of exports and export insurance change in each context. Research design, data, methodology : This study uses a regime switching model to identify structural turning points in export and export insurance data over time. The methodology establishes a Markov Regime Switching-AR model to analyzes the time-series characteristics of Korea’s exports and export insurance from 2005 to 2024. Results : The empirical results reveal that both exports and export insurance exhibit two regimes—low-volatility and high-volatility—with distinct differences in persistence and shock responses. Specifically, exports show longer persistence in high-volatility regimes, while export insurance responds more sensitively to short-term shocks but provides greater stability in the long run. These findings highlight the role of export insurance as a policy stabilizer during economic fluctuations. Conclusions : Export insurance is not merely a financial instrument but a strategic trade policy tool that can simultaneously stabilize exports and promote growth under rising global uncertainty. These research findings provide important academic and policy insights for assessing the effectiveness and timeliness of export insurance and guiding future institutional reforms.

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