병역자원 급감 대응을 위한 징·모병 혼합제 도입 전략

초록

The Republic of Korea has long maintained a conscription-based military service system. However, ongoing demographic decline in available conscription resources and the shortening of mandatory service periods have prompted active debate over the need for its military service reform. This study, adopting the framework of policy change theory, applies a modified Delphi method to analyze the views of defense experts on this issue. The findings indicate a broad expert consensus that transitioning to wards a mixed conscription-volunteer system is both a viable and desirable policy direction, and that its actual implementation should be a gradual process, if necessary. While there was strong agreement regarding the challenges posed by declining manpower due to shorter service periods, proposals such as mandatory conscription for women and a substantial increase in the number of female officers were assessed as having relatively low feasibility. The experts emphasized the importance of public consensus and societal preparedness. This study is expected to contribute to the ongoing military service system reform and the development of national defense policy.

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