한우 거세우의 이윤극대화를 위한 적정 출하시기 의사결정 솔루션 개발 연구

초록

This study develops a decision-support solution for determining the optimal shipping time of Hanwoo steers from the perspective of profit maximization. Using slaughter and carcass grading data provided by the Korea Institute for Animal Products Quality Evaluation and genetic information from the Korea Animal Improvement Association, a total of 13,155 Hanwoo steer observations were analyzed. The study constructs prediction models for carcass weight, quality grade, yield grade, and wholesale price according to slaughter age based on genetic traits and feeding management conditions. The predicted carcass characteristics and prices were incorporated into a profit-maximization framework that considers expected revenue and feeding costs to determine the optimal shipping time. The empirical results show that carcass weight and meat quality grade increase with slaughter age up to a certain point and then gradually decline, while yield grade tends to decrease as the feeding period increases. Wholesale beef prices are positively associated with both quality grade and yield grade. When predicted revenue and feeding costs are integrated into the profit maximization framework, the optimal shipping age of Hanwoo steers is estimated to be approximately 32 months. At this age, expected gross revenue is estimated at about KRW 10.55 million, feeding cost at KRW 8.40 million, and farm profit at approximately KRW 2.15 million per head. These findings suggest that determining shipping time based on economic optimization rather than conventional practices can improve farm profitability. The proposed decision－support solution provides practical guidance for farm-level shipping decisions and contributes to improving economic efficiency in the Hanwoo production system.

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