미중 반도체 갈등과 중국의 대응 전략 분석 - 미국의 대중 반도체 제재 딜레마와 중국의 3가지 돌파구를 중심으로 -

초록

This study conducts an in-depth analysis of China's response strategy based on the semiconductor sanctions dilemma imposed by the United States on China. While the United States is strengthening sanctions to decouple from China in the advanced semiconductor field, it is also tolerating coupling with China in the general semiconductor market, fearing infringement on the interests of U.S. companies. This dilemma faced by the United States presents both opportunities and challenges for China. China perceives the U.S. tolerance for coupling as an opportunity and is reinforcing the development of the general semiconductor industry. China's promotion of the general semiconductor industry, which is larger in scale than advanced semiconductors, can contribute to China gaining an advantage in the general semiconductor market. Simultaneously, it provides an opportunity to leverage outdated semiconductor technology, for the development of advanced performance semiconductors. In the short term, China employs a bypass strategy actively utilizing outdated technology for semiconductor industry self-sufficiency. Concurrently, China is responding to U.S. high tech restrictions by pursuing a medium-to-long-term strategy involving talent development and the development of third-generation semiconductors. The U.S. focus on decoupling from Chinese semiconductors aligns with advanced technologies, shaping its response accordingly. The U.S. strategy, driven by security concerns originating from China and the values of alliances, aims to reshape the global supply chain in the semiconductor industry. This has led to diverse analyses connected to international political theories such as power politics, diplomatic security, and more. However, this framework makes it challenging to explain the U.S. dilemma of allowing coupling with China in outdated semiconductor technology to benefit the interests of the U.S. semiconductor industry. The U.S. semiconductor containment against China appears to be more a part of a significant industrial policy for fostering the semiconductor industry than a practical outcome of U.S. diplomatic and security strategies. This U.S. approach and China's response provide three implications for the development direction of the South Korean semiconductor industry: expanding South Korean companies' general semiconductor business in China, maintaining relationships that can collaborate on the establishment of third-generation semiconductor standards expected to be widely adopted in China, especially in power semiconductors, and strengthening semiconductor talent collaboration between South Korea and both the United States and China.

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