ScholarWorks@동국대학교

초록

We examine how demographic shifts-population aging, declining fertility, and the rise of one-person households-reshape household composition and distort relative-poverty statistics in Korea (2014-2024). Using Household Finance and Living Conditions Survey (SHFLCS) microdata, we classify households into nine types, apply counterfactual reweighting to impose the 2014 composition on 2024 incomes, and implement a Das Gupta variant of Kitagawa decomposition. Within-type poverty fell across all categories, yet the aggregate poverty rate rose by 2.46% points (pp). Composition accounts for + 3.55 pp, partly offset by a poverty-line shift (- 1.02 pp) and a residual/interaction term (- 0.07 pp). This contribution amounts to about 144% of the overall increase, showing that demographic shifts in household structure can mechanically inflate poverty rates even without any deterioration in income distribution. Accordingly, our findings highlight the importance of distinguishing between statistical illusions and substantive poverty. We also document a contraction in private inter-household transfers consistent with household downsizing, implying real (non-statistical) losses among vulnerable groups. Importantly, a rising headcount in projections can reflect a poverty-rate illusion: as average household size shrinks, the relative poverty line moves up mechanically, so measured poverty can increase even when real resources or social spending do not deteriorate. These findings argue for composition-sensitive indicator series and targeted support to one- and two-person vulnerable households.

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