세계 경제 동향과 수출보험의 관계에 대한 실증분석

초록

Purpose : The key purpose of this study is to examine the impact of macroeconomic factors on export insurance with respect to the problem of endogenous trade policy. Research design, data, methodology : For the purpose, this study organizes an econometric methodology in the framework of the simultaneous equation with the export and the export insurance. And then the study estimates the equation using Two-Stage Least Squares(2SLS) regression analysis at the level of quarterly data for Korea from 2005 to 2022. Results : The estimation results from 2SLS present that economic variables describing global economic trends are likely to impact both exports and export insurance in Korea. In particular, the economic variables with the statistical significances are GDP, the rate of GDP change, PPI, and trade balance. More importantly, the results demonstrate the evidence for the significant influence of GDP and the rate of GDP change on export insurance in the simultaneous equation. Conclusions : The evidences from the empirical analysis of 2SLS on the equation imply that economic variable related to global economic fluctuations seems to impact on export insurance. As a consequence, the export insurance may play a positive role in promoting exports and conducting countercyclical function as a trade policy instrument. The conclusion in this study also suggests that the policy authority consider the proactive role of export insurance policy in the effect for the countercyclical activity.

키워드