외국인력 유입이 내국인력 일자리에 미치는 영향 분석 연구: 일자리 경쟁이론 기반 실증분석과 디지털 정책 대안

초록

South Korea is facing a serious labor shortage due to declining birth rate and aging population, which have significantly reduced the size of the working-age population. In response, the country has gradually expanded its reliance on foreign labor. However, growing concerns of inflow of foreign labor possibly displacing domestic labor remain. Grounded in the job competition theory, this paper empirically analyzes the effect of increasing foreign labor supply on domestic employment. In particular, it examines how this relationship varies by wage level by including interaction terms between foreign labor and average domestic wages. Using municipal-level panel data from 2017 to 2020 based on the Survey on Immigration Status and Employment and the Regional Employment Survey, we applied OLS, random effects, and fixed effects models. The results showed that an increase in foreign labor had a statistically significant negative effect on domestic employment especially in low-skilled and low-wage sectors, suggesting a structural trade-off in the labor market. Finally, this paper proposes the policy-oriented application of digital innovation technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data analytics, and blockchain to manage imbalances in labor market structures more effectively. These findings provide both theoretical and practical implications for developing data-driven and sustainable foreign labor policies.

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