원유 시장 수급 상황 판단을 위한 지수 개발 연구

Abstract

In Korea, the farm gate price of raw milk is determined by the price formula based on milk production cost. Total raw milk production at the national level is also heavily limited by the national quota system. Therefore, it is almost impossible to understand the status of raw milk market by observing raw milk price at the farm level or total supply of raw milk. This study develops an index to measure the imbalance of supply and demand of raw milk. To do this, we first analyzed the structure of raw milk market and then developed the milk market pressure index by applying the structure of the foreign exchange market pressure index. In addition, this study sets the seven market crisis stages using the average and standard deviation of the milk market pressure index and analyzed the main causes of the market crisis.