Oil Export and Military Intervention to Democratize an Autocracy

Abstract

Prior studies have argued that external pressures are important determinants of democratization. However, although a large literature have analyzed the effect of oil on domestic democratizing pressures, few have focused on how oil affects external ones. This study argues that an autocracy’s oil export reduces external democratizing pressures. An autocracy’s oil export increases costs of external democratizing pressures, and reduces the efficiency of the pressures because of three characteristics of oil export: the importance of oil as a primary energy source, the exporter-favored structure of the international oil market, and price inelasticity of oil. To examine this argument, this study focuses on a democracy’s military intervention to democratize an autocracy, the expensive but most powerful foreign policy to democratize an autocracy. Empirical results support this argument.