Real-Time Spatiotemporal Seismic Fragility Assessment of Structures Based on Site-Specific Seismic Response and Sensor-Integrated Modeling

Abstract

Earthquake hazards, such as strong ground motion, liquefaction, and landslides, pose significant threats to structures built on seismically vulnerable, loose, and saturated sandy soils. Therefore, a structural failure evaluation method that accounts for site-specific seismic responses is essential for developing effective and appropriate earthquake hazard mitigation strategies. In this study, a real-time assessment framework for structural seismic susceptibility is developed. To evaluate structural susceptibility to earthquakes, seismic fragility functions are employed as thresholds for structural failure and are linked to a geotechnical spatial grid that incorporates correlation equations for seismic load determination. The real-time assessment consists of the following procedures. First, the geotechnical spatial grid is constructed based on the geostatistical method to estimate the site-specific site response to be correlated with the earthquake hazard potential. Second, the peak ground accelerations are determined from seismic load correlation and assigned to the geotechnical spatial grid. Third, the damage grade of structure is determined by calculating the failure probabilities of defined damage levels and integrating the geotechnical spatial grids for the target structure in real time. The proposed assessment was simulated at Incheon Port, South Korea, using both an actual earthquake event (the 2017 Pohang Earthquake) and a hypothetical earthquake scenario.