Simulated impacts of rainfall extremes on yield responses of various barley varieties in a temperate region

Abstract

As population rises, more people need to be fed. With increasing income, the potential exists for increases in the demand for cereals (i.e., barley). Since barley has a high level of tolerance to environmental stressors, this crop has been recommended as a potential crop for food security in marginal environments. In this study, a crop growth Agricultural Land Management Alternatives with Numerical Assessment Criteria model, was parameterized and used to simulate the yields of two barley types grown in a temperate environment at a latitude of 35 degrees N. In order to apply this crop model to barley, 19 years of field data were used to model calibration and validation. As a result, the ALMANAC model accurately simulated yields for both barley types. The validated model was used to predict yields under three diverse seasonal rainfall scenarios associated with different patterns of the Central Pacific El Nino influence. According to the simulation results, excessively high seasonal rainfall decreased barley yields. Crop price and annual revenue of the two barley types were also evaluated using a non-linear regression model. For the malt type, the food price was higher with a higher rainfall, while naked barley had a higher revenue under the conditions of a lower rainfall.