Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Yields of Various Korean Soybean Sprout Cultivars

Abstract

Soybean sprout is an important food ingredient in East Asian cuisine. Soybean growth is highly sensitive to temperature and photoperiod. Thus, it is important to determine the optimal base temperature for an accurate yield prediction. The optimal base temperature can be varied by cultivars. In this study, six soybean sprout cultivars that are commonly grown in Korea were planted in South Jeolla province, South Korea between 2003 and 2018. Data on phenology were collected from the field and used to determine the optimal base temperature for each cultivar. As a result, variations of optimal base temperatures of cultivars ranged from 0 degrees C to 15 degrees C. In simulation, three plant parameter sets, including Soy15, Soy6, and Soy0, were created. Soy15, Soy6, and Soy0 represented soybean cultivars with base temperatures of 15 degrees C, 6 degrees C, and 0 degrees C, respectively. In simulation results, the values of percent bias were under 15%, indicating that the Agricultural Land Management Alternative with Numerical Assessment Criteria (ALMANAC) could reasonably simulate soybean yields. Among these three cultivars, Soy15 had the smallest yield, while Soy6 had the highest yield. In climate change scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585), both maximum and minimum temperatures were increased by 1-3.3 degrees C. With increasing temperatures in the future period, grain yields for all cultivars decreased. The yield reduction might be because the high temperature shortened the length of growth period of the soybeans. Among the three cultivars, Soy6 was a promising cultivar that could have a high yield under climate change scenarios.