A Study on Customized Prediction of Daily Illness Risk Using Medical and Meteorological Data

Abstract

This study selected the most common illnesses in children and older adults and aimed to provide a customized degree of daily risk for each illness based on patient data for specific regions and illnesses. Sample medical data of one million people provided by the National Health Insurance Corporation and information regarding the meteorological environment and atmosphere from the Korea Meteorological Administration and a public data portal using application programing interface were collected. Learning and predictions were carried out with machine learning. Models with high R-2 were selected and tuned to determine the optimal hyperparameter for predicting the degree of daily risk of an illness. Illnesses with an R-2 value greater than 0.65 were considered significant. For children, these consisted of acute bronchitis, the common cold, rhinitis and tonsillitis, and middle ear inflammation. For older adults, they consisted of high blood pressure and heart disease, the common cold, esophageal inflammation and gastritis, acute bronchitis, eczema and dermatitis, and chronic bronchitis. This study provides the degree of daily risk for the most common illnesses in each age group. Furthermore, the results of this study are expected to raise awareness of illnesses that occur in certain climates and to help prevent them.