국제 원유선물시장의 지역블록화에 관한 연구

Abstract

This study intends to examine the regional blocs of the international crude oil futures market by analyzing the dynamic conditional correlation between the international crude oil futures markets using the DCC-GARCH model. For statistical data, from April 2, 2018 to March 31, 2022, international crude oil futures prices such as Europe, the United States, China, and Dubai were used. To summarize the results of the study, first, the phenomenon of regional blocs in the international crude oil futures market is occurring, and it is found that it is gradually strengthening as time goes by. Second, it was found that the dynamic correlation of the international crude oil futures market is temporarily strengthened when a supply-demand imbalance problem occurs due to a global shock. Third, it was found that the volatility of the Chinese crude oil futures market affects the international crude oil futures market. This study confirmed that the regional blocs phenomenon in the international crude oil futures market is strengthened as time goes by. In particular, it suggested that China's influence in the international oil market would increase.