대만의 신남향정책이 수출에 미치는 단기적 영향

Abstract

This paper analyzes how Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy (NSP) affects the export performance of firms using customs transaction-level data of Taiwanese exporters for the period 2006–2017. The analysis shows that the NSP has not made the expected progress in increasing exports to NSP target countries and reducing exports to China over the short term. Contrary to the policy’s initial aims, the NSP has increased the value of high-technology-intensive goods exported to China. It has also increased export price, quantity, and value to Taiwan’s other major trading partners—the United States, Japan, and Korea. These findings suggest that the NSP should be developed further to provide tangible support for exports to target countries and to accelerate some measures for promoting early harvests and concrete achievements. Moreover, continuous investment and policy support are needed from a long-term perspective.