Risk Factors of Organ Failure in Patients with Bacteremic Cholangitis

Abstract

Bacteremic cholangitis carries a high mortality rate of up to 10 % in relation to organ failure (OF), including septic shock. The purpose of this study was to elucidate predictive factors for OF in bacteremic cholangitis. A retrospective review of all patients diagnosed with acute cholangitis and proven bacteremia from 2003 to 2011 was performed. Comprehensive clinical and laboratory data of 211 patients were analyzed. There were 42 cases (19.9 %) of OF and 5 deaths (2.4 %). In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, significant predictive factors for OF were successful biliary decompression, presence of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase organism (ESBL), higher total bilirubin, and higher blood urea nitrogen (BUN) level at admission with odds ratios (ORs) of 0.129, 6.793, 1.148, and 1.089, respectively. Subgroup analysis of 165 patients who underwent biliary decompression before an event (with OF: 20, without OF: 145) was performed to elucidate the risk factors for organ failure even after successful biliary drainage. Variables significantly associated with OF included ESBL and BUN (OR = 4.123 and 1.177, respectively). We developed a scoring system with regression coefficient of each significant variable. The organ failure score was calculated using the following equation: (1.4 x ESBL) + (0.2 x BUN). This scoring system for predicting OF was highly sensitive (85.0 %) and specific (83.4 %). Biliary decompression, ESBL, total bilirubin, and BUN are prognostic determinants in patients with bacteremic cholangitis. An organ failure scoring system may allow clinicians to identify groups with poor prognosis even after successful biliary decompression.