Future Glycemic Events Prediction Model Based On Artificial Neural Network

Abstract

Predicting future glycemic events such as hypoglycemia, hyperglycemia, and normal for type 1 diabetes (T1D) remains a significant and challenging issue. In this study, an artificial neural network (ANN)-based model is proposed to predict the future glycemic events of T1D patients. We utilized five T1D patient datasets to build the models and predict future glycemic events with a prediction horizon (PH) of 30 and 60 minutes ahead of time. We applied the data preprocessing method based on the sliding window approach by sliding the blood glucose time-series data from the past 60 minutes (the last 12 data points) as input and using the next 30 and 60 minutes (the next 6 and 12-th data points) as output. All the numeric blood glucose output data are then transformed into a multi-class classification label, such as hypoglycemia, hyperglycemia, and normal. Our proposed model is then used to learn and create the prediction model from the preprocessed blood glucose dataset. Four performance metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall, and f-1 score were utilized to measure the performance of the classification models used in this study, such as Naïve Bayes (NB), Decision Tree (DT), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and K-Nearest Neighbour (KNN). The results showed that our proposed ANN-based model performed better at predicting future glycemic events than other models, with an average accuracy, precision, recall, and f-1 score of 88.649%, 76.661%, 71.731%, 72.609%, and 83.364%, 60.437%, 61.345%, 60.62% for the PH of 30 and 60 minutes, respectively. As a result, knowing this future glycemic event sooner can help patients avoid potentially dangerous conditions and can eventually be used to improve diabetes management. © 2022 IEEE.