The Effects of Climate Change on Heading Type Chinese Cabbage (Brassica rapa L. ssp. Pekinensis) Economic Production in South Korea

Abstract

Since Chinese cabbage is consumed fresh, its wholesale price varies with the total amount supplied on the market. However, in these days, climate variability presents a large threat to sustainable Chinese cabbage production in South Korea. To manage Chinese cabbage production well under unexpected weather conditions, it is important to study the impacts of climate variability on Chinese cabbage economic yields in South Korea. In this study, 2-year field trials were conducted in multiple locations across seven provinces in South Korea. The collected morphological data from 24 different varieties were used to develop a yield prediction model using a machine learning technique. Three Chinese cabbage groups were carried out through the clustering analysis, and a yield model was developed for each cluster group. The developed model was used to predict the cabbage economic yields under different combinations of climate change and cropping management plans. According to simulation results, Group 1 had the shortest growing degree days and produced higher yields than the other two groups. However, the overproduction of Group 1 led to a price reduction in the market of (USD(0.04-0.08) per kg), which suggested that producing Group 2 of (USD(0.31-0.96) per kg) is more beneficial to farmers. Based on the production results of the groups, their revenue varied by location and cropping management. The results of this study provide farmers with a better understanding of the relationship between production and economic benefits in future climate change scenarios.