한우 사육주기를 반영한 단기 도매가격모형 개발

Abstract

The production of Hanwoo cattle involves a lengthy process, spanning approximately 40 months, including a 10-month gestation period, from the initial decision-making on the farm to the supply of cattle. This extended timeline contributes to the overall beef cycle, which lasts around 10 years. Notably, the Hanwoo industry is currently undergoing structural changes characterized by increased scale, specialization, and integrated farming practices. The objective of this study is to develop a short-term wholesale price model that incorporates the long-term slaughter population model, taking into account both the beef cycle and the structural changes of the Hanwoo industry. This short-term wholesale price model comprises an estimate of the number of cattle slaughtered and various explanatory variables that influence wholesale prices. Importantly, the predictive accuracy of this model surpasses that of previous research efforts. The developed model in this study is anticipated to serve as a valuable tool for forecasting the number of Hanwoo cattle slaughtered and predicting wholesale prices accurately.