국제상품 가격의 결정요인에 대한 연구: 콩과 구리의 사례를 중심으로

Abstract

The prices of soybeans and copper started to rise in the mid 2000’s along with the prices of gold and oil. Since then, the drivers of price movements for soybeans and copper have been rather complex. This study focuses on the factors that have driven the price movements of soybeans and copper. It analyzes weekly macro-economic data from the Bloomberg database from December 2004 to May 2015, including price fluctuations as well as stable periods for soybean and copper prices. The results show that the price of soybeans was driven by the gold price and non-commercial futures contracts which represented speculative demand, while the price of copper was driven by macro-economic variables such as oil prices and the S&P 500 index. In addition, the present study shows that ETFs are not yet a determinant of soybean and copper prices. Application of this study can help investors manage risks related to commodity portfolios; it can help managers forecast the prices of soybeans and copper in import markets; and they can help Korean government officials implement timely policies related to commodity prices.